Global crude oil trade is set to grow by almost 180 million tonnes by 2012, driven mainly by growing demand from China. Strong demand in the Far East, abundant supplies of oil and falling crude prices have increased demand for oil tankers.
BP Shipping's regional chartering manager, David Grimshaw said that seaborne crude oil trade would increase from 1.715 billion tonnes in 2007 to 1.897bn tonnes by 2012. In terms of demand growth, he told IBC Asia's Energy Shipping Conference in Singapore, that the biggest drivers would be China and India. China will see 1.486 billion barrels per day of new refinery capacity coming onstream by 2012, driving a growth in long-haul crude imports from West Africa and the Middle East. While China is looking to take greater control of the entire crude oil supply chain, with its main shipping companies building up their VLCC fleets, this is still expected to leave at least 50 per cent of the market to international owners. For Japan, crude oil imports are set to decrease as the country generally becomes more fuel efficient. There will also be a growth in crude imports into India from the Middle East. Sumita Bose Roy, Executive Director, International Trade and Shipping for Bharat Petroleum Corp ,said that crude oil consumption in India was set to increase 141 million tonnes a year by 2012 compared 117 million tonnes in 2008. At the same time domestic production is set decline marginally from 41 million tonnes this year to 39 million tonnes in 2012, with the gap in demand met through imports primarily from the Middle East. Annual VLCC shipments are forecast to increase to 102 in 2012, compared to 76 this year. However, limited port infrastructure will see trade moving in Aframaxes and Suezmaxes. For US imports Grimshaw said shipments from Venezuela would decrease by 2012, partly for political reasons, being replaced by West Africa imports.
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